Less than ten years ago Bernard Lewis in his seminal The crisis of 'Islam (2004, p.. 103) wrote:
" The combination of low productivity and high rate of Childbirth in the Middle East contributes to the formation of an unstable mixture, composed of a large and growing extent of young unemployed, uneducated and frustrated. According to all indices of the United Nations, the World Bank and other authorities, the Arab countries - in areas like creating jobs, the 'education, technology, and productivity - are even further behind in relation to' the West. Worse yet, the Arab nations are also back with the more recent recruits to Western-style modernity, such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore "
considerations of Professor Lewis is still largely illuminating, though PROBLEMS: today to highlight the extraordinary growth in large countries like China, 'India and Brazil.
In their rapid growth was accompanied by an increase in food prices, which many considered one of the main triggers of the riots.
Sergio Romano on Panorama of February 24, 2011, p.. 109, writes:
"Revolutions are often ideological. But generally when the riots broke out hunger in the streets draws together university students, the populace of the suburbs, the unemployed, the workers to whom the salary no longer guarantees a decent survival. Those of Tunis, Cairo and Alexandria have erupted when the 'increase in consumption in emerging countries (China, India and Brazil), along with famine in the countryside of China, caused the sudden surge in food prices. "
see how all the inhabitants of the countries in revolt? With whose eyes read these devastating effects of globalization? Three key elements seem to be highlighted.
The first, too often overlooked, is represented by the exacerbated sensitivity and historical awareness of Muslims and Arabs in particular.
writes Bernard Lewis in 'work cited above, p.. 5:
"The Muslim peoples, like all peoples of the world, sono stati plasmati dalla loro storia, ma a differenza di altri ne sono fortemente consapevoli".
Fin dall' infanzia i musulmani vengono formati nella memoria di un grande passato. Tale memoria contribuisce ad accrescere la delusione per il presente.
Si deve poi sottolineare la lunga sopravvivenza, pressochè nell' intera regione, di sistemi caratterizzati da un forte ruolo dello stato nell' economia. Iraq, Siria, Egitto, Libia, Algeria. In questi paesi i regimi autoritari baathisti o socialisti hanno costruito società in cui sempre più gli individui chiedevano allo stato, non al proprio lavoro, la soddisfazione dei bisogni fondamentali. E lo stato riusciva a trovare un minimo Consensus is often only through the sale of oil and gas or aid of superpowers. In these societies is a widespread mentality in many ways similar to that of the 'Soviet man' state-dependent as described by scholars of the 'Soviet Union and Soviet systems (see, for everybody, Victor Zaslavsky, History of the Soviet system , 2009, p.. 182 et seq.).
Also to be highlighted were the effects of new technologies. Internet and satellite transmissions, thus allowing surface contact, unfortunately, usually with modernity, with its opportunities and, more often, with his promises. In this contact the roots widespread unrealistic expectations which presumably have driven many young people to rise against the corrupt and authoritarian rulers.
On this basis we can surmise what developments? In the medium term the riots will produce damage to national economies. Less tourists, less foreign investment, less production, more unemployment, more emigration.
The hoped-for democratic development could lead to an increase in public spending, debt and 'influence of religious fundamentalism.
No hope for these people? It 's impossible to predict the future. And you can not control chaotic processes such as those in place. If someone thought to succeed in these companies and take advantage of it is wrong. By new arrangements and awareness will emerge perhaps good news. But in history the worst is always possible.
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