Particularly in times of crisis are urgently proposed conspiracy and conspiratorial explanations of the evils that afflict us. Essi sarebbero in larga misura il frutto intenzionale dell' opera di potenti, o gruppi di potenti, cinici ed avidi.
Si tratta di una lettura della realtà irrazionale, errata e fuorviante.
Perchè i potenti non sono abbastanza potenti, sbagliano, ignorano. La loro condotta produce conseguenze impreviste, non volute.
Le teorie del complotto affascinano. Forniscono una spiegazione facile ed immediata. Ma ci allontanano dalla verità, che raramente è evidente, manifesta.
La realtà è sotto i nostri occhi, ma è complessa, sfuggente. Se vogliamo tentare seriamente di risolvere i nostri problemi dobbiamo accettare la complessità, fare i conti con essa, lavorare duramente per scoprire errori, responsabilità e possibilità. Che, appunto, sono visibili ma difficili da leggere, da comprendere, da realizzare.
Quando un intellettuale imputa i nostri guai a complotti e cospirazioni, se non ci sta vendendo un romanzetto, diffidiamo. Difficilmente ci dirà cose interessanti.
Scrive Karl Popper in Congetture e confutazioni (pagg. 580 e 581 - ed. 2000):
la "teoria sociale della cospirazione... E' l' opinione secondo cui tutto quel che accade nella società - comprese things that people normally do not like, such as war, unemployment, poverty, famine - are the result of a specific purpose pursued by some individuals or powerful groups. Quest 'opinion is widespread, even if it is, in a sense, no doubt, a sort of primitive superstition ... is, in its modern form, the typical result of the secularization of religious superstitions. "
" Against this social theory of conspiracy do not support, of course, that conspiracies have never rise. instead affirm two things: first, that are not very frequent and do not alter the characteristics of social life. Assumed that conspiracies cease, there would still be facing basically the same problems as always.
Secondly, I argue that they can very rarely. The results, as a rule, differ widely from that which was intended (think, for example, the Nazi conspiracy). "
" ... understand, of course, not all consequences of our actions are intentional, and therefore that the social theory of conspiracy can not be true, because it amounts to 'assertion that all events, even those at first sight not premeditated by some, are the' result of deliberate 'action of those who were intended to for interest .
Popper has expressed similar concepts in Open Society and Its Enemies , particularly in his fourteenth chapter.
To understand this problem is still useful reading Wise on the powerful Piero Pomegranates (ed. 1977). What he writes (p. 123):
" But in all places the 'political-is the result of social trends and forces many complex material and spiritual, rational and irrational, difficult to control. In the ongoing, intricate, undulating overlap of all these forces and trends must be sought the explanation of different historical situations in which individuals and communities are to operate effectively. The Heads ... are often deeply conditioned and even overwhelmed by the surrounding reality .
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